Probability Risk Assessment in Marine Pipelines by Updating Parameters Configuration of Piramid Tool
Proceedings Publication Date
Dr. Jorge González
J. L. González-Velázquez J. L. Altamirano-Flores, J. Villagómez-Ortega, Á. Graniel-Romero.
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The current statistical information about failure events in pipelines system in the Campeche and Tabasco littoral is applied for the updating configuration of the parameters of the PYRAMID tool for calculating the probability of failure due to the impact and natural hazard obtained from risk analysis of marine pipelines. The PIRAMID models use the historic failure data occurred in US pipelines, located in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the configuration data updated in 2005, to calculate the probability of failure. The evaluations shown as main threats are the impact and natural hazard; diminishing the likelihood of failure due to other hazards like external corrosion, internal corrosion, among other defects. The updated calculation of failure rates, was made from the review of the occurrence of leaks and their failure analysis; determining the weighted average period of registration failure events in the pipeline. This allowed adjustment factor setting depth of cover and Vessel Traffic Factor. The application of modified factors showed decreased rates of failure probability due to impact and natural hazard, as well as the calculation change of failure rates associated with other defects, that are consistent with the failure phenomena observed in field. Therefore, the risk assessment with this update will improve the key hazards identification that may directly affect the integrity of marine products. Consequently this updating will lead to implement Management Plans Pipeline Integrity more efficient, obtaining this greater security personnel, environment and facilities.

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