Predicting the Future - Applying Corrosion Growth Rates Derived from Repeat ILI Runs
Corrosion is still one of the major threats to the integrity of onshore and offshore pipelines. Realistic corrosion growth rates are essential inputs to safe and effective pipeline integrity management decisions. The identification of where corrosion is active on a pipeline and how fast it is growing is a complex and highly variable problem and thus difficult to predict due to the localised nature of corrosion behaviour. The use of repeat in-line inspection (ILI) data to match and compare metal loss sites in order to estimate the corrosion growth rates at individual defects along the full length of a pipeline is a well-used and established practice in the industry. The use of such corrosion rates to make predictions of the future integrity of a pipeline started in earnest approximately 10 to 15 years ago and over that time considerable experience has been gained. Now that we are starting to collect 3, 4 or even 5 or more ILI data sets for the same pipelines we are able to test and validate our earlier ILI based growth rate predictions versus what actually occurred in the pipeline over time. With the benefit of this hindsight, the methodologies employed for evaluating and applying ILI based corrosion rates can be further improved and refined to give more accurate predictions of the future pipeline condition, the response schedule and for setting the timing of re-inspections. This paper shares experiences gained and improvements that can be made to the determination of corrosion rates and application of these rates in a pipeline integrity assessment. These topics are illustrated and investigated via the use of studies on real ILI data sets.
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