MARV Multi-Analytic Risk Visualization tool
Proceedings Publication Date
DNV GL Research and Innovation has been working several years to develop the future risk assessment method for pipelines that can give better, more correct and real time risk that can be visualized on a GIS system in real time. The development has resulted in a new tool that is named MARVTM – Multi-Analytic Risk Visualization tool. The system has been tested out on several clients globally with very good result. MARV™ is a risk assessment methodology based on Bayesian networks. MARVTM uses Bayesian Models Forward Projection Plus Backward Correction. More importantly, uncertainty in the calculations is quantified too. This uncertainty is driving the data collection, when the uncertainty is acceptable, expensive data gathering can stop. The MARVTM tool allows sensitivity analysis on the results that helps decide between data gathering and/or mitigation. Bayesian inference is used to update the probability of an event through observations/monitoring improving the initial “guess/assumption” through real data. Bayes' equation allows the probabilities of various outcomes to be updated based upon the relationships between models and evidences. After inference, the updated probabilities reflect the new levels of belief of all possible outcomes. Why is MARV™ different from current risk assessment methods? • Do not use single values, but a probability density functions • Links all models no matter origin, complexity, or programing language in one single frame work. • Understand where the risk comes from.